Economy & Real Estate Q2 2024

Following a period of high inflation rates and significant interest rate hikes, a large number of western economies are, expectedly enough, now being confronted with low economic growth. The focus of economic policy is thus being shifted from combatting inflation to reviving the economy. In a comparison with the German-speaking regions of Europe the US economy is developing extremely positively. Its relatively strong macroeconomic performance and the historically low rate of unemployment indicate that the world’s leading economic power is still excellently positioned and is rightly regarded as an attractive international investment location. On the whole the German housing market is characterised above all by a low level of construction approvals with the forecast number of completions also low. As a consequence of the increase in interest rates, liquidity problems also play a role for private households, with previously planned purchases and new constructions now being postponed. All in all this means that in the long term there is a stable rental market with strong potential, as the sparse offering contrasts with a simultaneous increase in demand. New housing construction continues to be dominated by multi-family residential buildings, and therefore also by professional investors. For the much less heavily regulated yet more volatile real estate market in the USA the forecast for the rest of this year is a slight rise in rents with purchase prices stagnating at the same time. Real estate thus also benefits from stable cash flows when compared with other asset classes. In this respect the real estate markets in the various metropolitan areas have proved themselves to be highly heterogeneous with differing degrees of dynamism.